Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.688369 1.910284 2.145828 2.413972 2.710269 3.027158 3.391200
2024-12-29 1.475820 1.795087 2.154609 2.587589 3.092913 3.661992 4.349221
2025-01-05 1.217133 1.588626 2.031511 2.594073 3.284851 4.100330 5.130325
2025-01-12 1.027231 1.436994 1.953347 2.643465 3.532257 4.628185 6.070127
2025-01-19 0.856841 1.285614 1.856704 2.659100 3.741218 5.131967 7.033366
2025-01-26 0.750312 1.203874 1.840520 2.777645 4.095979 5.854958 8.343560
2025-02-02 0.651487 1.118161 1.808262 2.871372 4.429044 6.582666 9.729260
2025-02-09 0.557019 1.023806 1.751213 2.923418 4.710462 7.267373 11.119508
2025-02-16 0.478735 0.941958 1.701982 2.981337 5.007031 8.000622 12.641567
2025-02-23 0.394762 0.835071 1.597677 2.940586 5.150650 8.524836 13.907318
2025-03-02 0.316387 0.722451 1.466561 2.838916 5.187390 8.891473 14.969449
2025-03-09 0.271497 0.664586 1.422348 2.878210 5.455925 9.637306 16.666112
2025-03-16 0.224455 0.594209 1.348305 2.863490 5.646896 10.299525 18.323239
2025-03-23 0.197842 0.562136 1.343347 2.975933 6.072258 11.382902 20.742901
2025-03-30 0.159538 0.493111 1.251855 2.911202 6.175026 11.938135 22.346378
2025-04-06 0.132575 0.444388 1.194437 2.905911 6.387259 12.699785 24.354751
2025-04-13 0.108556 0.396056 1.128599 2.873612 6.544517 13.378096 26.271915
2025-04-20 0.095036 0.373282 1.118144 2.958265 6.939571 14.514211 29.063781
2025-04-27 0.082324 0.348884 1.099179 3.021590 7.298510 15.611858 31.861578
2025-05-04 0.069861 0.320883 1.065429 3.046144 7.579717 16.584898 34.498252
2025-05-11 0.059688 0.296963 1.037716 3.081082 7.886605 17.629816 37.333847
2025-05-18 0.048183 0.263075 0.974440 3.018677 7.973976 18.251658 39.417483
2025-05-25 0.037371 0.226406 0.893760 2.898226 7.916762 18.578912 40.959902